Political-Risk Warning Matrix
An interactive analytic instrument distilled from the KBA13 Insight body of strategic and political-risk analysis. Adjust the structural pressures below and read a tiered warning signal — from calm to red — with the scenario logic behind it. A learning tool for judgment, not a forecast.
Structural pressure indicators
Set each indicator from low (0) to critical (100) based on your reading of current conditions. Each carries an analytic weight.
Composite warning signal
A weighted index across the indicators, mapped to a four-tier standby scale.
Reading
Adjust the indicators to generate a warning reading.
Scenario logic
Goro-Goro (Simmering)
Diffuse grievance and mistrust rise, but institutions still absorb pressure. Watch legitimacy erosion and the price of essentials.
Coalition Fracture
Elite bargains fray and protest coalitions widen. Contagion across cities becomes plausible; response capacity is strained.
Huru-Hara (Turbulence)
Compounding shocks overwhelm buffers. Disorder is no longer contained by routine institutions and requires crisis measures.
How the signal is built — method & assumptions
The composite is a transparent weighted average of six structural pressures. It is a thinking aid: it externalises assumptions so they can be challenged, not a predictive model. Different analysts will justify different indicator values — that disagreement is the point. The tiers echo a standby-calendar logic used across KBA13 Insight strategic writing (from goro-goro to huru-hara).
This instrument does not forecast events, name actors, or assign probabilities to real outcomes. All values are analyst-supplied. Consequential judgments require corroborating evidence and human review.