This research direction builds a transparent system of indicators for anticipating social, political and strategic risk in Indonesia and the region. It began with the National Integrity Warning Calendar, which mapped sixty months of risk from 2026 to 2030, and has since been tested through public audits that record where forecasts succeeded and where they failed.

Current work refines four escalation indicators: disorderly currency movement, major disasters with failed responses, the exit of balancing actors, and insiders voicing public unease. The direction connects to the Early Warning System prototype and the Political Risk Warning Matrix in the AI Laboratory, and to working papers that apply the indicators to current events.