Intelligence & Strategic Studies

Research Domain 03 of 16

Intelligence & Strategic Studies

Structured analysis of risk, warning, elite dynamics and national security, grounded in transparent analytic tradecraft.

Overview

Scope of the domain

This domain develops open, transparent intelligence analysis for public understanding. It applies structured analytic techniques, early-warning indicators and scenario methods to political, economic and security risks in Indonesia and the wider region, while keeping every judgement traceable to sources and every forecast open to later audit.

A defining feature of the domain is accountability for predictions. KBA13 publishes probability-weighted scenarios and then audits them publicly, as in the audit of the National Integrity Warning Calendar. The domain links to the AI Laboratory’s analytic workbench and briefing builder, and to the School of Intelligence & Strategic Studies for training.

Key research questions

  • Which indicators give reliable early warning of political instability?
  • How do elite generations compete for control of the state?
  • How can forecasts be audited honestly after the fact?
  • Where do economic shocks and security risks converge?

Focus areas

  • Early-warning indicators
  • Elite conflict mapping
  • Scenario analysis and forecasting audits
  • Open-source intelligence (OSINT)

Typical outputs

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Publications in Intelligence & Strategic Studies

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Teaching materials and sources for Intelligence & Strategic Studies

Courses in this domain

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